Richard Nixon 1969-74. Bill Clinton 1993-2001. PPP’s newest Kentucky poll finds that Mitch McConnell continues to be unpopular in the state, with only 41% of voters approving of the job he’s doing to 48% who disapprove. Bette Midler blasts McConnell: 'How did he win with an 18% approval rating?' Senators’ net approval ratings for the first three months of 2019 relative to the partisan leans* of their states. Like we did for PARG, we can use PARS as a tool to assess the 2020 Senate elections — specifically, to give us clues about which of the senators whose seats are up in 2020 might be poised to over- or underperform their party’s presidential ticket. Download this data: presidential primary polls, presidential general election polls, Senate polls, House polls, gubernatorial polls, presidential approval polls, generic congressional ballot polls Design and development by Aaron Bycoffe , Ritchie King , Ella Koeze , … Addison Mitchell McConnell Jr. (born February 20, 1942) is an American Republican politician, serving since 1985 as a United States senator for Kentucky, and since January 20, 2021 as Senate Minority Leader.He previously served as majority leader between January 2015 and January 2021. It’s based on the same premise as my Popularity Above Replacement Governor (PARG) statistic1 — that it’s a good idea to think about politicians’ popularity in the context of their states’ partisanship. All rights reserved. 1:30 PM, PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. Customize this chart. Lyndon B. Johnson 1963-69. 2020 Senate Elections (54) All rights reserved. Now They Are Changing Congress. Previous chart. Cory Gardner of Colorado, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Cornyn of Texas. Together with this poll, these latest developments in the race support the idea that Collins may turn out to be of the most vulnerable senators up in 2020. Mitch McConnell tells Fox he'll support the Republican nominee in 2024, even if it's Trump. That may not look like anything special, but it’s actually quite impressive because Manchin is a Democrat in one of the reddest states in the nation (R+30). He clawed his rating back up to 39% on the eve of the election. McConnell beat Grimes 56 percent to 41 percent. Nathaniel Rakich is an elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. In the aftermath of her vote on Kavanaugh, progressive groups collectively have raised $4.7 million for her eventual Democratic opponent. About YouGov. Nate Silver thinks Amy McGrath has a (slim) chance of beating Mitch McConnell Posted at 3:46 pm on July 9, 2019 by Brett T. ... McConnell has the worst approval ratings in the country. Updated over 3 years ago. @baseballot, Approval Ratings (115 posts) According to the latest round of data, Mitch McConnell has a negative, a net negative approval rating in 49 out of 50 States across this country. Minority leader Sen. Mitch McConnell's approval rating has dropped 29 points among Kentucky Republicans since the November election. But it was just one poll, and others found that she still enjoyed strong support. Jul. How White House Economists Are Thinking About COVID-19 Relief. Shaded rows denote senators whose seats are up in 2020, excluding those senators who are not seeking reelection. Mitch McConnell. But partisanship isn’t the only factor in Senate races (yet); a senator’s popularity can still make a difference. This chart combines the latest opinion polls into trendlines and … A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Earn rewards for sharing your opinion with YouGov and have it featured in the news. Here, McConnell … The Hill | 12-10 Actress and comedian Bette Midler voiced her disapproval of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Thursday, calling the Kentucky Republican 'utterly useless' and accusing him without evidence of cheating in his reelection last month. Among national adults, McConnell's current 23% favorable rating is similar to his average of 24% from Gallup's trend since 2010. And in recent weeks, multiple Democrats announced they would run for her seat, most prominently state House Speaker Sara Gideon, who was quickly endorsed by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and raised $1.1 million in her first week. McConnell is … Cory Gardner (a +1 PARS), Joni Ernst (-1) and Martha McSally (-6), who are also up for reelection in 2020. In the latest poll, her net approval rating was +27 among Republicans, -2 among independents and -40 among Democrats. As Gingrich said in his interview, McConnell does not have the base to launch an attack the caliber of which he seems to be considering against former President Trump. In the latest poll, her net approval rating was +27 among Republicans, … 18, 2019, He noted that Trump’s approval rating among Republican voters, at close to 80%, stands at a similar mark to that of former President George W. Bush following the Iraq War and the 2007 financial meltdown. Unlike this trio, there are some senators whose electoral fates probably do hinge on the presidential race. Republican Sen. Susan Collins is another senator who hopes to overcome the partisan lean of her state (Maine is 5 points more Democratic-leaning than the nation) to win reelection. Just three months ago, her PARS score was +18. Similarly, if you were to look at state partisanship alone, you might assume that Democratic Sens. But after the vote, her net approval among Republicans surged, while it dropped with independents and plummeted among Democrats. Bush 1989-93. McConnell came in with just a 21% approval to 67% disapproval rating among Americans at-large. Barack Obama 2009-17. Approval rating Approval Disapproval rating Disapproval Net approval. The question is whether the results in 2020 will be closer to her net approval rating or Maine’s light-blue partisanship; splitting the difference yields a race that leans (or tilts) Republican, which is exactly where major election handicappers have it. The partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we haven’t calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. © 2021 ABC News Internet Ventures. Note that the partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we haven’t calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. Just the News Daily Poll numbers put McConnell’s current favorability at 21%. 2 in PARS with a score of +33. Only 69% of Republicans approve of the job he’s doing, and independents split against him 30/53. With the decline of split-ticket voting for races at the top of the ballot, that could mean Collins is in real jeopardy of losing if the Democratic presidential nominee wins Maine in 2020. FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. FiveThirtyEight’s partisan lean metric is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. © 2021 ABC News Internet Ventures. Currently tracking 306 polls from 17 pollsters. That conversation starts with Sen. Doug Jones, who comes in at No. “Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell … saw the largest decline in his approval rating among GOP voters, dipping 29 points, to 41%,” the poll report said. Next chart. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has an 18 percent job approval rating in Kentucky, according to a new survey. It’s not crazy to think he could be vulnerable in 2020. polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators, The Black Church Has Been A Force In American Politics Since Before Black Americans Could Vote. That represents a dramatic fall since the end of November, when Politico/Morning Consult found McConnell with a 30% favorability rating and 45% saying they had an unfavorable view. Gerald Ford 1974-77. This is a stark turnaround for Collins, who was once one of the most popular senators in the country. No matter who wins the 2020 presidential election, they won’t be able to get much done if their party doesn’t also win the Senate. FAQ. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 (2-7= -5). PARS, like PARG, is calculated by measuring the distance between a politician’s net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating) in her state and the state’s partisan lean (how much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning it is than the country as a whole).2 Take West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin as an example. McConnell, a Republican from Kentucky, had a slightly lower disapproval rating at 50% and a lower approval rating of 37%. However, Morning Consult’s quarterly poll of senators’ approval ratings, released on Wednesday night, agrees that Collins’s popularity is underwater. Each has a PARS between +1 and -3, indicating that their net approval rating is in line with their states’ partisan lean. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. That gave Pence a +62 rating. McConnell manages just a -13 net approval rating despite inhabiting an R+23 state. And unlike her 2008 and 2014 reelection campaigns, Collins was already facing a tough race in 2020. Mitch McConnell Is The Only Senator More Unpopular Than Susan Collins Share on Facebook Share on Twitter. Why it matters: Quick, fully at-home COVID-19 tests could make a vital contribution to stemming the pandemic — and open up a new frontier for more constant disease surveillance — but old assumptions about how diagnostics should be used are holding them back. There is only one state in this nation where Mitch McConnell does not have a negative approval rating and no, it is not his home state of Kentucky. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! A Politico/Morning Consult poll released on Tuesday found McConnell's approval rating at just 19%, with a whopping 63% holding an unfavorable view of him. McConnell, by contrast, has seen his approval rating among Republican voters in his own state plummet by 29 points to 41% since rebuking Trump. On the other hand, McConnell’s job performance approval rating was 16 percent, and 74 percent disapproved. “We’re still with Mitch. He sported the lowest approval and highest disapproval rating … Jones is a Democratic senator in R+27 Alabama, so he’s fighting an uphill battle. How White House Economists Are Thinking About COVID-19 Relief. That’s why, today, we’re unveiling a metric of a senator’s political standing that takes both partisanship and popularity into account. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Mark Warner of Virginia and Tina Smith of Minnesota are electorally vulnerable. Accordingly, he leads all senators with a +35 PARS. Join YouGov now. It’s not crazy to think he could be vulnerable in 2020. CPAC And The Broader Republican Party Agree: It's Trump's Party For Now. If the Democratic presidential nominee carries their states (admittedly, this will be easier for Colorado than for Texas), the party may get a Senate seat as a bonus. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) argued on Sunday that Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and other congressional leaders have low approval ratings because of their "socialist ideas." Her net approval rating in the Morning Consult poll has been on the decline over the past two years, but she still has a solid +13 net approval rating. And if he is able to maintain a positive net approval rating (it’s +6 currently), that will be a sign of life for his candidacy. They all sit in closely divided states (from R+2 for New Hampshire to D+2 for Minnesota), yes, but they are all also quite popular. @baseballot, Mitch McConnell (57 posts) Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, arguably the most powerful Republican today, was viewed very unfavorably by GOP members. RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Mitch McConnell: Favorable/Unfavorable Nearly half of Americans have a negative view of the majority leader. Democrats are reportedly trying to recruit former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath, who raised $8.6 million for an unsuccessful 2018 congressional bid, to run against him. Historically, the presidential election results in a given state have tracked closely with the Senate outcome there, and the two are only coming into closer alignment (in 2016, for example, the presidential and Senate outcome was the same in every state). Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for these calculations. Shaheen has a +21 net approval rating, Warner has a +19 net approval rating and Smith has a +18 net approval rating. CPAC And The Broader Republican Party Agree: It's Trump's Party For Now. Rapid at-home COVID-19 tests are fast, but the regulatory approval needed to get them in the hands of Americans has been slow to come. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! Granted, her popularity was already on the decline before that vote (she had a +22 net approval rating in the second quarter of 2018), and it didn’t nose-dive immediately after it (it was still +15 in the fourth quarter of 2018), but importantly, it does seem to have polarized her support along party lines. “A spokesperson for Republican Leader Mitch McConnell confirmed reports to ABC News that McConnell intends to support the nomination of Merrick Garland to serve as attorney general,” reports ABC News. McConnell only has a 47-44 lead against a generic […] With these latest numbers from Morning Consult, Collins has a Popularity Above Replacement Senator score of +2 — in other words, she is just 2 points more popular than we’d expect a generic Republican to be in Maine. How Every Senator Ranks According To ‘Popularity Above Replacement Senator’. Only 45 percent of Mainers said they approved of her compared with 48 percent who said they disapproved, and only one senator (Majority Leader Mitch McConnell) has a higher disapproval rating than Collins now does. Jimmy Carter 1977-81. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's job approval rating among Republicans alone jumped 15 percentage points to 62 percent in February from 47 percent in October. Women Of Color Have Always Been In Politics. Note that the partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we haven’t calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. A month and a half ago, the pollster Critical Insights released a poll that said Republican Sen. Susan Collins’s approval rating had dropped to 41 percent and her disapproval rating had risen to 42 percent. The Republican Party is also viewed favorably, albeit less so. * Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. multiple allegations of sexual misconduct, The Black Church Has Been A Force In American Politics Since Before Black Americans Could Vote. The … Health Care Law. In 2014, McConnell also had popularity problems, and Democrats thought they had a top candidate to challenge him in Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. Susan Collins (25). The poll showing that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, the president’s most stolid defender, is down to a 18 percent job approval rating in Kentucky. According to the latest Morning Consult poll, which covered the first three months of 2019, Manchin had a +5 net approval rating. 1,462 days 4 years 8 years. at 2020 Senate Elections (54) But PARS reveals why the handicappers aren’t so sure. In the first quarter of 2017, for instance, Morning Consult gave her a +40 net approval rating (her approval rating of 67 percent minus her disapproval rating of 27 percent). George W. Bush 2001-09. Women Of Color Have Always Been In Politics. Nathaniel Rakich is an elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Mitch McConnell Is The Only Senator More Unpopular Than Susan Collins. Collins' approval rating in her home state of Maine has fallen ten points since September 2019, dropping to a 52% disapproval rating. Democrats approval … Independent Sens. Doug Jones (36) But now her popularity simply falls along party lines, just like it does for fellow vulnerable Republican Sens. 2016 National House Race. George H.W. They drove by McConnell’s office raucously honking and bearing signs saying “Mitch better have my money.” In 2017, a Public Policy Polling Survey asked Kentuckians, “Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mitch McConnell’s job performance?” Only 18% approved. McConnell manages just a -13 net approval rating despite inhabiting an R+23 state. Maine (67) Recent polling data points shows Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's (R-KY) approval rating in decline as Democratic and Republican lawmakers struggle reach … Check out all the polls we’ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections. That personal popularity was supposed to go a long way toward helping her get reelected against the partisan tide. But her reputation for bipartisanship took a hit last fall, when she voted to confirm Brett Kavanaugh, President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee who faced multiple allegations of sexual misconduct. In a recent poll conducted by Quinnipiac University, McConnell had a negative approval rating, with 48 percent of voters saying they disapproved of him. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has seen his unfavorable ratings skyrocket in recent weeks following his public break with former President Donald Trump, according to a new Just the News Daily Poll with Scott Rasmussen. That’s a bad trade for Collins, because Maine is a Democratic-leaning state (it has a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean1 of D+5), so she will need the support of some independent and/or Democratic voters to win reelection in 2020. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. Eighty percent of respondents look favorably upon the party, while 18 percent do not, giving it, too, a +62. Those include Republican Sens. With the help of Morning Consult, which polls the approval ratings of U.S. senators every quarter, we’ve created a statistic that I’m playfully calling Popularity Above Replacement Senator (PARS). Now They Are Changing Congress. Mitch McConnell Favorable Rating. Still, the poll indicated that Donald Trump’s approval rate was fairly high in Kentucky, 60 percent approved of his job performance, 36 percent disapproved. Ronald Reagan 1981-89. Before the vote, Morning Consult found Collins enjoyed the approval of most Democrats and independents, while Republicans were split 47-47 on her job performance. Finally, the senator who ranks last in PARS is also up for reelection in 2020, and it’s a big name: Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. The Economist / YouGov polls. Susan Collins (25). Paul received an 82 percent approval rating from GOP respondents to the survey, 20 percent higher than that of McConnell's approval from his party. But it’s worth remembering that Lucy has held this football in front of Democrats before.
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